Despite anxiety about interest rates, stock markets, housing affordability, unending international crises, and over-valued, high-tech unicorns, 2015 was a solid year of appreciation in Marin: The median Marin house price rose 15% from Q1 to Q4 2015. Despite its rising prices, Marin real estate is still, generally speaking, distinctly more affordable than in San Francisco, and that has been bringing new buyers to the county. Of course, there are also many excellent quality-of-life reasons why people want to live here. » Read more about: 2015 Marin Real Estate Market Review »
While waiting for the 2016 real estate market to really wake up and start generating useful statistical data, below is a look at Marin County house and condo values over the past 5 years, broken out by city and town. In most areas, the market bottomed out in 2011, the current market recovery began in 2012, and new peak values reached in 2015.
Important context: Median sales price is a general statistic, often concealing an enormous variety of values in the underlying individual sales. » Read more about: Marin County Home Price Appreciation since 2011 »
Monthly and seasonal fluctuations in median sales prices are quite normal and do not necessarily say much about changes in fair market values. For that one must look at longer-term trends. However, for what it is worth, the Marin median house price this past February was 16% higher than in February 2015. If this spring is like the past few springs in which a high-demand/low-supply dynamic prevailed, then sustained home-price appreciation may start showing up in the statistics during the next few months. » Read more about: The Marin Real Estate Market Report »
Looking at the market statistics and trends for the Marin County homes market, what stands out is how remarkably steady its core dynamics have remained in recent years. Inventory remains low by historical standards and has continued to decline this year. Demand remains solid with a very high percentage of listings accepting offers, especially for more affordable homes. It has been a strong market since 2012, but, » Read more about: Marin Q1 2016 Real Estate Market Report »
San Francisco Median Home Price Appreciation
Short-Term & Long-Term Trends
As seen in the first chart below, the combined house-condo median sales price hit a new high in April. However, as the second chart illustrates, so far this year, while median house prices continued to appreciate, condo and TIC prices appear to have generally plateaued. 2012-2015, spring was the most dynamic, high-demand/low-supply selling season of the year.
Market Dynamics by Property Type &
The bar charts compare year-over-year data, going back 2 years, for the latest month. The line charts track monthly data over a period of 3 to 5 years. Note that it can take 7 to 15 days after a month’s end for agents to enter in transaction data pertinent to the month in question, so statistics for the latest month can sometimes change significantly as this data is added to calculations.
Seasonality can play a significant role in many real estate statistics as the market ebbs and flows during active and less active sales seasons.
Below is a look at the past 30+ years of San Francisco Bay Area real estate boom and bust cycles. Financial-market cycles have been around for hundreds of years, all the way back to the Dutch tulip mania of the 1600’s. While future cycles will vary in their details, the causes, effects and trend lines are often quite similar. Looking at cycles gives us more context to how the market works over time and where it may be going —