Year-over-Year SF Median Sales Price ComparisonLooking at 3-month rolling median sales prices in the chart above, comparing the February through April periods of 2015, 2016 and 2017, the SF median house price is relatively flat since last year, and the median condo price is relatively flat since 2015, after both saw rapid appreciation rates in the previous years. (At this point, the recent, minor percentage changes comparing 3-month periods should not be considered significant.) The flattening in condo median price for the additional year reflects the earlier and greater cooling that occurred in that market segment.
Comparative Neighborhood Values & Appreciation TrendsOne of our readers suggested that it would be interesting to see multiple San Francisco neighborhoods illustrated on a single chart to compare home prices and appreciation rates. We got a little carried away and created more than 2 dozen graphs, of which 6 are below. The extremely affluent Presidio Heights neighborhood has the largest houses and highest prices in the city, with next door Pacific Heights right behind.
San Francisco Luxury Home PricingIt has been clear over the past 2 years that the market for higher priced homes has cooled more than that for less expensive homes, and this is reflected in the first chart of this report. One of the big issues is that many luxury home sellers have simply been asking for more money than buyers are willing to pay: This is illustrated in the chart above which compares median sales prices with median asking prices, and then with the median prices of expired listings that were ultimately pulled from the market without selling.
Various Economic Indicators Bay Area Employment & Unemployment Rates
The lowest unemployment rates in 15 years, but the picture in hiring and new high-tech hiring in particular, is a bit unclear with recent shifts up and down.
S&P 500 Stock Index
Maybe some irrational exuberance at play since the election?
Perhaps the biggest social, economic and political issue in the Bay Area right now: Remaining close to all-time lows
San Francisco, Alameda & Marin RentsRents in all 3 counties ticked back up in Q1 after recent declines, but too much should not be made of this until substantiated over a longer term than 1 quarter
Mortgage Interest Rates
Up after the election, down since the new year began, rates remain extremely low by historical standards
S&P Case-Shiller House Price Index Another Angle on Bay Area Home Price Appreciation TrendsAccording to Case-Shiller, which divides sales into 3 price tiers and measures Bay Area home price appreciation using its own proprietary algorithm (instead of median sales prices): In the period from April 2016 through February 2017 (its most recent report), less expensive homes appreciated by 7% during the period; mid-priced homes appreciated by 3%; and high-priced homes remained flat over the 11 months. Over the last year or two, the greatest pressure of buyer demand in the Bay Area has shifted to the more affordable home segment. Again, the first chart in this report highlights this dynamic in San Francisco. C-S numbers all refer to a January 2000 home price set at 100. Thus, a reading of 249 signifies a price 149% over than of January 2000.