After hitting new monthly highs in May, San Francisco houses and condos hit new quarterly peaks in Q2 2017. However, median house price appreciation, $100,000 above its previous high, has been more dramatic over the past 2 years than median condo price appreciation, which has mostly plateaued due to the surge in new-project condos coming on market. As illustrated above, it is not unusual for median prices to peak for the year in Q2, and a significant part of this dynamic,
Before jumping into the specific financial metrics pertaining to the market itself, below is a review of some of the major economic context issues which underpin the market: rent rates, new construction and employment.
Bay Area Rent Rate Trends
San Francisco still has the highest rents in the nation (the light blue columns in the first chart above), exceeding even Manhattan (in second place, delineated by the dark blue line),
As Buyers Compete for an Inadequate Supply of Home Listings,
San Francisco Median House Sales Price Soars to $1,500,000 in May
June 2017 Report
Home price appreciation, overbidding asking prices, supply and demand
dynamics, the SF luxury home market & new housing construction
Three Views of SF Median Sales Price Appreciation
Monthly House & Condo Median Sales Prices since 2012
We are not that enthusiastic about using monthly median prices,
Paragon Real Estate’s 2017 San Francisco Farmer’s Market Guide.
Since the year began, preliminary data has been trickling in regarding the Bay Area and city economy, and the commercial and residential real estate markets in particular, that appears to indicate that things may be heating up again after clearly cooling in late 2015 and 2016 (subsequent to the increasingly torrid conditions in the 4 years prior). It is far too early to come to any definitive conclusions regarding the long-term significance of recent local or national shifts: Some of the data is not always consistent with such a conclusion; » Read more about: A Second Wind for San Francisco Real Estate? »
A consideration of the main factors at play behind the current San Francisco real estate market, some of which reflect general macro-economic trends and some of which are specific to the city itself. As we’ve seen in 1989, 2001 and 2008, many of these factors can stall or go into reverse very quickly in the event of a large, negative, economic, political or even ecological event.
In 2016, the market in San Francisco started to cool off somewhat after 4 years of a ferociously high-demand/low-supply dynamic. » Read more about: Supply, Demand, Money & Demographics: 10 Factors Behind San Francisco’s Real Estate Market »
In recent months, there have been multiple reports in local media about Big Drops in San Francisco Home Prices! But, umm, we are not seeing it, neither on the ground in the hurly burly of buyers and sellers making deals, nor in the year-over-year quarterly statistics of supply and demand. News articles often make a big deal regarding the median sales price in a single month, but monthly data is often gravely deficient as an indicator,
Below are 3 charts from our updated 9-chart report that breaks down which neighborhoods one is most likely to find a home within a specific price range, whether house or condo. The report covers homes from under $1 million to over $5 million.
If you want to buy a house under a million dollars, one is now mostly limited to the neighborhoods that run across the southern border of San Francisco.
The full report is here: San Francisco Neighborhood Affordability
What Can I Buy for $1,200,000 or $2,000,000?Below are illustrations of the wide range of homes (and,
The charts below are based upon San Francisco home sales reported to MLS during the 12 months from 2/16/16 – 2/15/17, breaking out the neighborhoods with, generally speaking, the most sales within given price points. Other neighborhoods not listed did have smaller numbers of sales within given price segments.
Where to Buy a HOUSE for under $1 millionThe overall median HOUSE price in the city in 2016 was $1,325,000, so the under-million-dollar house is becoming increasingly rare.
These tables report median sales prices, average home size and units sold, by property type and bedroom count for a variety of San Francisco neighborhoods. If you are interested in data for a neighborhood not listed, please contact us. The tables follow the map in the following order: houses by bedroom count, condos by bedroom count, and 2-unit building sales. Within each table, the neighborhoods are in order of median sales price.
The analysis is based upon sales reported to San Francisco MLS in 2016 by December 22.