Bay Area Median House Sales Prices by County For 3rd Quarter 2016

In Q3, the median house sales price in Lamorinda & Diablo Valley jumped a bit ahead of Marin County. In fact, the demographics and real estate markets of the two areas are quite similar. Note: for 2016 YTD through 11/30/16, the median sales price for Lamorinda and Diablo Valley was $1,100,000 – a reminder of how median prices can fluctuate during the calendar year, depending on season. Additional Chart: Lamorinda & Diablo Valley Median Sales Price Trends since 1996

Median Home Price Map, 2016 YTD, 1/1/16 – 9/30/16 MLS Sales Move cursor over map to reveal median home prices.

Note that median sales prices will usually change if the period being measured is changed even slightly. Especially if the number of sales is relatively small, prices can sometimes fluctuate dramatically, simply depending on the specific homes that sold within the period. Click on the map below to access median home prices by city across the Bay Area Overview: November 2017The Lamorinda & Diablo Valley markets continue to see moderate price increases year over year, driven by a general lack of supply and continued high buyer demand, especially in the more affordable, middle-price ranges. Multiple offers are still common, but not as frequent as in spring, and the number of listings that are expiring without selling is increasing, a clear sign of sellers asking more than buyers are willing to pay. The market is definitely cooler in higher price segments, with significant increases in the number of luxury homes for sale amid somewhat softer demand. This is a general trend across the Bay Area. The real estate market usually goes into semi-hibernation from just before Thanksgiving through mid-January, with transaction activity plunging during the holiday season (especially at the high end). However, this can still be an excellent time for buyers, because competition for listings declines rapidly.

Supply, Sale & Expired Statistics Year-over-Year Comparison

All Residential Properties

Luxury Homes, $2 Million+ Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) The MSI chart above illustrates how the general, under-$2 million segment remains deep in seller market territory. The inadequate supply of listings for sale as compared to demand is certainly being exacerbated by homeowners reluctant to put their home on the market without being able to identify a replacement property, a Catch-22 type situation. The MSI readings for more expensive homes fluctuate considerably by season, and are much higher, an indication of a different supply and demand dynamic. Pricing Statistics The above chart highlights an interesting trend in the market: In both the general homes market and the luxury home segment, the median list price of homes for sale is considerably higher than the median sales price of the homes actually selling. And when one looks at listings that expire without selling, the median list price jumps way up. So there is clearly some disconnect between buyer and seller expectations. The 2 charts below dive deeper into the pricing issue, by breaking out homes that sell without going through a prior price reduction, listings that sell subsequent to price reductions, and listings that simply do not sell (expire). The first chart is for the general market and the second is for luxury homes. Homes that are priced well at the moment of hitting the market, and marketed comprehensively, are still selling very quickly at high percentages of asking price. However, overpricing usually has significant negative ramifications. Overall MarketLuxury Home Market

Bay Area Case-Shiller Home Price Index Recent price changes by property type and price segment 5-County SF Metro Area

Case-Shiller Index numbers all refer to a January 2000 price of 100, and track appreciation since then. Thus 243 on the chart signifies a price 143% above that of January 2000. For the purposes of this report, more important than the actual numbers is the direction of the trend lines. Across the Bay Area, the pressure of demand has shifted in the past year, and that is showing up in the appreciation movements of the different price segments. The Case-Shiller Index does not measure changes in median sales prices, but has its own special algorithm to determine same-home appreciation. This short-term chart illustrates how lower-priced houses have continued to appreciate rapidly, while appreciation for mid-price houses is slowing, and the prices of more expensive houses have more or less plateaued. Condo prices have begun to decline. (The condo statistic is probably being unduly influenced by the condo market in San Francisco, where condo prices are much higher, and where a large number of new-project condos have recently been hitting the market.) The Bay Area Index for August 2016 was published in late October. Chart: Long-Term, Case-Shiller Bay Area Home Price Trends Link to our complete S&P Case-Shiller Index report