Marin | Heading into the Autumn Selling Season
Autumn is typically the second busiest selling season of the year, though a relatively short one, running from after Labor Day until mid-November, when the real estate market begins its slide into the winter-holiday slowdown. September is one of the highest months of the year for the number of new listings hitting the market, as illustrated in the second chart above, and that surge in inventory fuels most of autumn’s home sales. Year to date statistics on months supply of inventory (averaging a very low 1.8 months of inventory), average days on market (a moderate 51 days) and percentage of sales price to original asking price (98.2% of list price), are all very similar to the stats for the first 8 months of 2015. However, it does appear that buyer demand at the more affordable end of the market is currently appreciably stronger than in the luxury home segment, where inventory levels and average days on market are appreciably higher, sales absorption considerably lower, and prices have been plateauing or even ticking down a little: Generally speaking, this is a dynamic playing out around the Bay Area. As always, correct pricing is vitally important for sellers.

1 2 Where to Buy a Home in Marin for the Money You Wish to Pay

From Less Costly to More Expensive

3 4 5 6

Long-Term Appreciation Trends By City & Town, 1994 to Present

Below are updated home-price trend charts for 4 of Marin’s communities. If you’d like to see the chart for a city or town not included below, or have any other questions, please let me know. 8 9 10

Paragon Special Reports on Bay Area Real Estate Markets & Housing Affordability

In August we issued 2 reports that received extensive media coverage in Bloomberg News & BusinessWeek, WSJ Mansion Global, San Francisco Business Times, KGO, KTVU, KCBS, SFGate, Curbed and others, even some international publications. Below is a sampling of the many analyses in the reports, as well as links to the full articles. 11 12 13 14 15 Full report: Income, Affluence, Poverty & the Cost of Bay Area Housing Full report: Bay Area Real Estate Markets & Demographics

A Tumultuous Time in Financial Markets The S&P 500 vs. the Shanghai Composite Index

16 We initially created this chart last autumn, and thought it would be interesting to update it for a longer term perspective. A year ago at the end of August 2015, a very volatile year began for national and international financial markets. Initially triggered by a crash in the Chinese stock market, sparking serious concerns regarding the international economy, the S&P 500 fell significantly, but then recovered completely by mid-autumn. Then the oil price crisis of early 2016 brought another sudden and dramatic drop, but again, the S&P recovered completely within 2 months. When the Brexit vote came in late June, the market barely reacted (despite expectations), and soon thereafter the S&P hit a new all-time high, a little above its previous spring 2015 peak. Thousands of pundit prognostications later, many predicting crash and doom, U.S. financial markets are basically back to where they were when the Chinese stock market crisis began one year ago. For even more information on Marin real estate: Marin County Real Estate Market Dynamics Marin County Home Values by City As always, please remember that the heat of different market segments can vary significantly by property type, price range and specific location. These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Statistics are generalities, longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term, and we will always know more about what’s actually going on in the present, in the future. © 2016 Paragon Real Estate Group

Ric Rocchiccioli

San Francisco Bay Area

DRE 01017500
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