October 12, 2017

Marin Real Estate Report – October 2017

Before talking about real estate, which does not seem very important in light of the terrible fires in the wine country, here are a number of ways to help, if you wish to do so. It is not a complete list.

Donate to Red Cross
Airbnb Open Homes Program
Napa County Disaster Relief
Go Fund Me Fire Relief Campaign
Sonoma Humane Society
Napa Humane Society
Other Ways to Help

Marin Median Home Price Trends since 1990

Marin County Median Home Price Trends

Marin Average Dollar per Square Foot Values by City
2017 YTD Sales

Marin County Average Dollar per Square Foot Values

Q3 Comparative Statistics, 2014 – 2017

Inventory slightly down, sales up, and home values increased
year over year in Q3 2017.

Marin County Q3 Market Statistics

Sales Prices to List Prices, Days on Market & Price Reductions
Home Sales under $2 Million

Marin Sales Prices to List Prices

Those listings buyers deemed fairly priced sold quickly and, on average, for 3% over asking price. Listings that had to go through price reductions prior to sale spent 2 months longer on the market and sold at a significant discount to original list price. And then some listings expired and were taken off the market without selling, typically due to buyer unwillingness to pay the price asked.

Marin Luxury Home Market

For the first time, Tiburon has taken the lead in number of luxury homes sold.

Marin Luxury Home Sales by City

As is always the case in real estate, what one gets for the price paid
varies dramatically by location, as shown by these average $/sq.ft. values.

Marin Luxury Homes Average Dollar per Square Foot

Q3 2017 was unusually strong for Marin luxury home sales
(though Q2 is still the biggest quarter of the year in the luxury segment).

Marin Luxury Home Sales Statistics

Overpricing Marin luxury home listings has very negative ramifications
for final sales prices, average days on market, or whether the listing sells at all.

Marin Luxury Home Sales Prices to List Prices

Context Economic Factors to Bay Area Housing Markets


We recently completed a report placing the Bay Area housing market within the context of a wide variety of other economic and demographic dynamics, such as population growth, employment and hiring, the stock and the IPO markets, consumer confidence, interest rates, commercial lease rates, aging homeowners (who sell less frequently), housing affordability and new housing construction. Because conditions, trends and cycles seen among them are, more often than not, closely interrelated. In some of these analyses we use San Francisco data due to its availability, but the trends generally apply to Marin County as well (except for new home construction: among Bay Area counties, Marin is at the back of the pack on this metric).

The full report is online here: Economic Context Report.

Median Home Price Trends by City

Median sales price is a very general statistic, and changes in median price do not necessarily correspond exactly to changes in fair market value, as it can be affected by a variety of factors. Cities with relatively few sales and wide ranges in individual sales prices are most prone to less meaningful fluctuations: Their values can shift simply due to the specific basket of larger or smaller homes sold in a particular period.

The charts below are arranged in order of 2017 YTD median house sales price, highest to lowest. Remember that median sales prices typically disguise a large variety of prices in the underlying individual home sales. They are best used as a comparative value statistic between areas, and to discern longer term trends in appreciation.

Marin County Belvedere Median Home Price Trends

Marin County Ross Median Home Price Trends

Marin County Tiburon Median Home Price Trends

Marin County Kentfield Median Home Price Trends

Bolinas Stinson Beach Median Home Price Trends

Sausalito Median Home Price Trends

Marin County Larkspur Median Home Price Trends

Marin County Greenbrae Median Home Price Trends

Mill Valley Median Home Price Trends

Marin County Corte Madera Median Home Price Trends

Marin County San Anselmo Median Home Price Trends

Marin County San Rafael Median Home Price Trends

Marin County Fairfax Median Home Price Trends

Marin County Novato Median Home Price Trends

San Geronimo Valley Median Home Price Trends

Please let us know if you have questions or we can be of assistance in any other way.

All our Bay Area real estate analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

© 2017 Paragon Real Estate Group