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San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends December 2023
As we embrace the holiday season and look forward to 2024, we want to take a moment to express our gratitude for your continued support.
May your Christmas sparkle with moments of love, laughter, and goodwill. And may the year ahead be full of contentment and joy.
Have a Merry Christmas !
Our market Recap:
“For the third sixth straight week, mortgage rates trended down, as new data indicates that inflationary pressures are receding. The combination of continued economic strength, lower inflation and lower mortgage rates should likely bring more potential homebuyers into the market.” Freddie Mac (FHLMC)
Stock and bond markets – which greatly impact household wealth, consumer confidence, and interest rates – were generally characterized by deep pessimism in October, but with significant changes in economic indicators such as inflation, and a continued pause in benchmark rate increases by the Fed, financial markets abruptly shifted to enthusiastic optimism in November. That translated into a dramatic plunge in mortgage rates, which has caused mortgage applications to increase over recent weeks.
Since the homebuying process usually takes 30 to 60 days, from loan qualification and making an offer to a closed sale, sales might see a bounce in December, or – since the midwinter holiday period typically sees the annual low point in new-listing (and thus sales) activity – more likely in early 2024 (subject to these positive trends continuing).
In January 2023, buyer demand saw a substantial rebound due to a similar drop in interest.
This report will review trends in home prices, new and active listings, speed of sale, overbidding, listings going into contract, and sales volumes in both the general market and the luxury segment. We have also updated our Bay Area home price tables and maps with detailed data on current values and market dynamics in the cities, towns, and other submarkets within the region.
Review the attached reports as 2023 comes to a close. We are happy to discuss any questions. It’s always best to review market activity in your specific areas of interest as a buyer as market dynamics information can be very helpful. The same info is helpful to seller decisions. We are happy to provide an analysis of your neighborhood at no obligation. Knowledge is power!
After 30+ years thriving in a dynamic real estate market where reading the tea leaves is essential, we are very excited that 2024 will be a stronger, more stable, and more robust market for both buyers and sellers.
If you are thinking about trying to time the housing market by waiting for lower rates – that isn’t a good idea. It’s really when you’re financially ready, emotionally ready, and, ultimately, you find that home that fits your dreams and/or your needs. Always important to listen to the bell if a home rings yours 😊
Local Market Activity:
  • On a year-over-year basis, the 3-month-rolling SF median house sales price in October 2023 was down about 1.5%.
  • On a year-over-year basis, the 3-month-rolling SF median condo sales price in October 2023 was down almost 8%.
  • The greater downtown/SoMa/Civic-Center condo market has been much more negatively affected by a number of economic, demographic, and social factors impacting supply and demand than condo markets in other city districts.
  • Year over year, 2023 YTD sales were down by approximately 28% from 2022 (after the steep decline from 2021).
  • After the big September surge in new listings, the number plunged in October and November and will almost certainly continue to decline to its typical December low point
  • Of the listings for sale on December 1, 2023, 28% were houses, and 72% were condos, co-ops, TICs & townhouses.*
  • Market activity will almost certainly continue to decline during the mid-winter holiday period.
  • Sales volume can be expected to decline through January before picking up again in the new year.
  • By property type, the % selling over list price in Nov. 2023 for houses was 63%, and for condos, co-ops, and TICs, 31%.
  • On average, SF houses are selling about 4.5% above asking price, and condos about 3.5% below. This statistic fluctuates by season and is a lagging indicator of market activity 3-6 weeks earlier.
Interest Rates Update:
US mortgage rates continued to plunge this week – good news for home buyers who have been facing the least affordable housing market since the 1980s. After dropping under 7% last week for the first time since mid-August, rates fell again this week. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate fell to an average of 6.67% in the week ending December 21, down from 6.95% the previous week, according to data from Freddie Mac released Thursday. A year ago, the average 30-year fixed-rate was 6.27%.
“We do expect that [mortgage] rates will continue to tip down incrementally,” says Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist and vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors, or NAR. “By the spring of 2024…rates will hopefully be in the 6% range.” (Forbes.com 12/13/2023)
Around 52% of global prime homebuyers are now paying in cash, up from 46% six months ago. (Bloomberg) A reminder that as a cash buyer, you have 90 days to come back and get a loan with getting an unlimited amount of cash back and the loan can price as a purchase or rate and term refinance loan.
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Enjoy your review and any questions let us know.
We wish you a healthy and happy holiday season.
We know we can help you seek and find your opportunities. Contact us any time to review your plans and needs. We are happy to assist you as well as your family & friends with their real estate needs – in our local market, across the country, or internationally – feel free to forward our newsletters or introduce us via email to anyone you know who may benefit from our monthly updates. Our network is extensive in our Compass family and beyond.
Are you wondering about the 2024 market specific to your property or one you saw online?
Need a revisit to your home value – we are happy to provide you a free market evaluation and address any questions you may have about the market.
We have clients stepping back into the market as buyers and sellers prepping for next year. It’s a great time to plan your next move. Call or email us anytime.
We Love What We Do – We can help you and your friends & family find opportunities in this market – Let us hear from you.
Warm Regards,
Callista & RicRoc

  A Sudden, Positive Shift in Economic Indicators. “For the third sixth straight week, mortgage rates trended down, as new data indicates that inflationary pressures are receding. The combination of continued economic strength, lower inflation and lower mortgage rates should likely bring more potential homebuyers into the market.” Freddie Mac (FHLMC).     .
    The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends December 2023 first appeared on Paragon Specific.

Ric Rocchiccioli

San Francisco Bay Area

DRE 01017500
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