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The Marin County Real Estate Market at the Start of the New Year

Gold, Google, Soybeans & Marin Home Price Appreciation

1 This first chart is a somewhat lighthearted, but we believe accurate look at how various 2011 investments would have played out through 2016. When calculating appreciation, purchase and sale dates are critical factors, and changing those can alter the results significantly: Using 2011, the last bottom of the real estate market, as the purchase date certainly plays to the advantage of home price increases. If you bought gold or soybeans in 2011, you really should have sold them a couple years ago at the height of the commodity price boom. Besides the appreciation percentage noted, buying a home in 2011 with all cash would have generated large, additional financial returns in the form of extremely low monthly housing costs. Buying it with 20% down supercharges the return on cash investment, and that is before adding in other advantages: Even with an 80% loan, by 2016 your monthly housing costs, with recent low interest rates and tax advantages, would be well below market rents. Then there is the huge capital gains exclusion on the sale of a primary residence, which would not apply to other investments. 2

Long-term Marin Median Home Price Appreciation

What Costs How Much Where in Marin

Sales & Prices by City and Home Size

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Real Estate Market Seasonality

Listing and sales activity builds from early January, the nadir of the market, into spring, typically the most active season. Accepted-offer activity provides an excellent illustration of the heat of the market during different times of the year. 12

Mortgage Interest Rates in 2016

Interest rates popped 22% higher since the election, though they still remain low by any historical measure. Where they will go now is a subject of intense speculation. 13

The S&P 500 Stock Index since 1994

To the surprise of many, U.S. stock markets also popped after the election to their highest points ever. 14 15 And now on to 2017, certain to be another interesting year. Wishing you and yours a safe, healthy, happy and prosperous New Year. It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis, which we are happy to provide upon request. Please call or email if you have any questions or need assistance in any way. These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.
© 2017 Paragon Real Estate Group

Ric Rocchiccioli

San Francisco Bay Area

DRE 01017500
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